Murphy's Law: If anything can go wrong, it will.

Murphy’s Law: If anything can go wrong, it will.  We used to play a lot of poker.  But two years after I retired, the bad beats kept on coming and the big wins went away.

My favorite bad beat story, really isn’t even a bad beat in the traditional sense.  Poker players love to tell bad beat stories but they never want to hear one.  I got up for a lunch break but instead of leaving my chips on the table, which I did 99% of the time, I picked up my chips, went to lunch and returned. As luck would have it, I was assigned to the same table I just left.  I was not dealt into the hand because the only open seat put me in the small blind.  A bad beat jackpot hand was dealt (straight flush beating 7777) to the seat that I had left for lunch.  Not only did I lose $7,000 for the bad beat, to add insult to injury, I didn’t get the $500 “table share” because I wasn’t dealt in the hand, so I was the only player at the table, not eligible for any share. The other players gave the dealer a huge tip but stiffed the Wolf even though I’m the reason the bad beat was dealt not the dealer.  If I had been dealt in the hand, there would not have been a bad beat jackpot.

I have a lot more bad beat stories.  Every poker player does but no other poker player wants to hear them. I kept playing regularly for a year after that bad beat, but my luck never turned around and I lost half my poker bankroll and retired.  I don’t feel bad about it.  In fact, I’m one of the lucky ones that walked away ahead.  I’m one of the few players who never lost his entire poker bankroll, which I never mingled with real money.  If you play long enough, that is going to happen, even if you’re one of the best players in the world.  I didn’t finished with twice as much money as I started with because I was good. I was lucky for over five years before I got unlucky for three.  

This year is the first in over thirty years that I’m not taking at least one trip to Las Vegas.  Eventually I’ll get back to playing poker. I still have my poker bankroll locked away in a safe.  I plan on going to Las Vegas in January for the SHOT Show, but that’s about this blog and guns not poker.  Of course the chances of the Wolf sitting down at a poker table when he’s in Vegas are about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

I’m following the 2012 World Series of Poker Main Event, which is down to less than 100 players. It started out with almost 6,600 participants.  Poker is a game of skill but luck is a huge factor.  You can’t win a tournament without a lot of good luck no matter how skilled you are.  And if you aren’t very skilled, you can go a long way with a lot of good luck.

The final 139 players returned from dinner last night. It was a great run for actor Kevin Pollak and former November Niner Joseph Cheong and for their own reasons, the 2012 WSOP main event was a truly memorable experience.

Seated at the feature table, Pollak returned to action with a stack of about 700,000 in chips and all the intentions in the world to make Day 6. He said before play resumed that he wouldn’t be going all-in with less than a premium hand. He lived up to his obligations on that front, moving all-in with Q-Q. He was called instantly by Kirill Rabtsov, who held … Q-Q.

Yup. That happened. And by the way, Pollak lost the hand and was eliminated from the tournament.

Pollak watched in amazement as four hearts ran out on the board and the dealer pushed the pot Rabtsov’s way as he held the queen of hearts. With his hands on his head, he realized his fate, shook the hands of his opponents and gave the 2012 WSOP a wave goodbye. He said afterward that going out that way gives him a great bad beat story to tell.  That’s poker!

Is Las Vegas Luck Running Out?

Originally posted on Bonzer Wolf LiveJournal January 11, 2009

Is Las Vegas running out of luck?  Not when the She Wolf is in town it seems. But she’s back in Dallas now!

This recession is really hurting everyone. It’s even hurting  Las Vegas, the economy that was once thought to be impervious to the economic swings suffered by the rest of the country. Not anymore.  What’s leaving Las Vegas more susceptible to this economic crisis than to previous ones? Diversification. Roughly 60 percent of the Las Vegas Strip’s revenues now come from nongaming activities. By contrast, in 1991 and 1992, when the last comparable slowdown occurred, nongaming activities provided just 42 percent of overall revenue.  It doesn’t help that the city’s convention business is slipping. 

The mortgage mess and the subsequent credit crunch have taken a toll on Vegas. Several major construction projects on the Strip are delayed due to financing problems, including a second tower for Donald Trump’s new condo-hotel. Also delayed is a plan to build a $6 billion version of New York City’s famed Plaza Hotel.  Nevada’s foreclosure rate leads the nation.

A UNLV economist says the Las Vegas economy could be weak through 2010.  Gold1020 recented commented in the Las Vegas Sun, “I think it’ll take longer than 2010 to turn the Vegas economy around. The reason Vegas had 7 great years was because of easy credit & easy money. People in the U.S. had a boatload of discretionary income. The days of easy money are gone-and they’re not coming back any time soon. Also-with Vegas portraying itself as a luxury destination-they’ve effectively thumbed their noses at all the middle income customers. People don’t need Vegas. They’ve all got casinos within an hours drive from their own homes.”

The Wolfs are returning to Las Vegas in March for a wedding.  Room rates were as low as I can remember in 2008 and continue to fall in 2009.  But the days of of risking  the Bonzer bankroll, even on positive expectation games like Full Pay Dueces WIld (100.76% return) six to eight times a year are definitely on hold. Cash is king and Bonzer can’t see the light at the end of  this recession tunnel. The real question we need to ask ourselves, “is the luck that made this the greatest country on earth starting to run out?”

2010? LMAO. I’d be surprised if Las Vegas rebounds by 2020!  Vegas along with Detroit has taken the worst of it during the Great Recession.  Housing prices have fallen more than 50% with no bottom in sight.  I’m back in Vegas now on an unexpected trip.  Mrs. Wolf surprised me on my birthday with air fare and hotel for a poker trip to Vegas.  This is my second trip this year but I had not planned on returning until March 2012.  But I’ve only played poker at Winstar three times this year, and Obama’s Black Friday for Internet Poker shut down my other poker fix.  I’ll let you know how I did when I return to the metroplex next week.

Record Heat Continues in North Texas

North Texas is suffering the second hottest summer on record, and the heat is not letting up anytime soon.

The high was 103 degrees yesterday at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport, making it the 30th consecutive 100-degree day in the area.

That ended the hottest July since 1980.

The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth estimated that the average high for July in North Texas was 101.7 degrees.

The record for consecutive 100-degree days is 42, set in 1980. We’re number 2 on the list now, but with 100+ degrees expected for the next ten days, we are on a pace to become #1.

August is often the hottest month of the year around here.

The weather service has issued an excessive heat watch, a prolonged period of dangerous hot and humid weather, through Thursday.

North Texas could feel some of the highest temperatures this year during the week. Forecasters are calling for highs of 107 to 108 degrees every day this week. The heat index is expected be over 110 degrees everyday this week.

The highest temperature during this streak was 106 on July 25. The highest temperature ever recorded at the DFW airport is 113 degrees, on June 28, 1980.

I’m leaving town on Wednesday morning for a place where the temperatures never fell below 90 for a week and the high was 117 for 5 days in a row, during a July visit almost ten years ago. I didn’t think I’d ever take a summer vacation in the desert again!

But temperatures there have been below normal this summer and the ten day forecast is for highs around 101 and a low of 80 with less than 10% humidity.  I’m not “naming” my destination because I get over 50 “robot” crawler hits a day on this website and I’m not giving “Lost Wages” any publicity since they sent “Dirty Harry” back to Washington in the November 2010 general elections.

Ok, so everyone who’s reading this knows where I’m going but the “bots” don’t and when “Lost Wages” is googled, this post won’t appear in the results.  By the way, I was there in March and had not planned on going back until March 2012.  Mrs. Wolf surprised me with an all expense paid poker trip for my birthday.  I’ve only played six poker sessions this year, so I’m looking forward to this trip.  I’ll more than double that number of sessions during this visit. Hopefully, I’ll also be getting a break from the record heat in the DFW metroplex even though I’ll be spending another week of summer in the desert!

WSOP Main Event Day 6 Results

Day 6 at the 2011 World Series of Poker started with all the attention on Ben Lamb, Kyle Johnson and chipleader David Bach. Nobody noticed the guy sitting 23rd overall, Ryan Leneghan. That all changed Sunday.

Leneghan went from middle-of-the-pack to Alpha Male thanks to one hand between himself and Bryan Follain. All the money went in pre-flop with the sixth bet coming from Lenaghan. Follian spent seven minutes trying to make a decision before finally calling. Follain had AQ to Lenarghan’s JJ. The flop was 963, keeping the hands unchanged. The turn, however, brought the 4, giving Follain a flush draw. The river was the T, and Lenarghan’s rail exploded in applause, as he had scooped the largest pot of the tournament, to move into a serious chip lead with 12,300,000.

The pot had reached over 8 million, and anybody with good sense was surprised to see neither player held aces, kings, ace-king, or even queens. Both these guys are why poker has gone from being primarily a game of skill to being mostly a game of luck. Millions of young players watch this kind of “action” on TV and play “strategy” like this.

The players were essentially flipping (with Lenaghan about a 56% favorite to win) but both played like donkeys. When the community cards came 9d-2d-6c-4d-10c, improving neither starting hand, Lenaghan took down the massive pot, and Follain hit the rail in 68th place. Follain had started the evening holding the 2nd highest stack in the tournament just hours before he busted out. 

Lenaghan finished the day with 12,865,000. No other player even has 10,000,000

Pushing all in preflop with AQ against a player who has you covered at this point in the tournament is beyond donkey. Bryan Follain goes by the name @2011WSOPChamp on Twitter.   I’m REALLLLLLLLLLLY glad he got busted.  I’ll be just as happy to see Leneghan hit the rail before they get down to the November Nine.  Poker has become a game of bingo at all levels.  If you see either one of these guys around, tell him that Bonzer Wolf say’s you’re both Bingo Bozo’s rather than world class poker players. Take a look at Follain’s twitter photo on the right; World Class Poker Player or Moron?

NL tournament strategy has changed dramatically over the last four years due to the influx of “young guns” who love to GAM-BALL. Going all in preflop without a pair was unheard of just a few years ago.  Experienced players used to never put all thier chips at risk without having BETTER than a single pair, including aces.  The story early in the day was that of Phil Collins. Sitting at the ESPN feature table Collins became the first player to pass the 5,000,000 chip mark and the 6,000,000 chip mark on the same hand.

Giuseppe Pastura raised from middle position to 52,000. Mario Silvestri called from the button and Collins raised to 200,000 from the big blind. Pastura rerasied to 552,000, Silvestri folded and Collins announced he was all-in. Pastura thought for less than 20 seconds and announced a call. Collins turned over AK and Pastura showed a dominated AJ. The [8d]64 flop brought some more outs for Pastura but the 5 on the turn and the K on the river were no help and Pastura was eliminated. After the hand Collins was the new chipleader with 6,200,000.

I watched another hand shortly after the dinner break where 3 players went “ALL IN” pre-flop, holding 44, QQ & AKos.  None of these players were short stacked enough to push all in here.  WTF people?  QQ raked a 7,650,000 chip pot when none of the hands improved on the board. But by the end of the night, Pius Heinz (QQ) had gone from 11,100,000 million chips to 5,695,000 for repeatedly “getting out of line”.  Oh well, that’s poker in 2011.

The 57 players left are all guaranteed a $130,997 or more score. Action resumes at Noon PT and the plan calls for play to continue until only 27 players remain. Follow the coverage live (30 minute delay) on  ESPN3

Top Ten Chip Counts

1. Ryan Lenaghan - 12,865,000
2. Ben Lamb – 9,980,000
3. Matt Giannetti – 7,940,000
4. Andrey Pateychuk – 7,255,000
5. Phil Collins – 7,240,000
6. Hilton Ladorba – 7,160,000
7. Nelson Robinson 6,420,000
8. Tri Huynh – 6,295,000
9. Aleksandr Mozhnyakov – 6,070,000
10. Bryan Devonshire – 5,970,000

Update on Monday, July 18, 2011 at 12:16PM by Bonzer Wolf

Bryan’s brother Jason, reached out to the Wolf via email.  Here’s the Follain side of the WSOP Donkey Play of the Day. Looks like I hit a nerve.  I always appreciate hearing from readers of my “barren website”. LOL

There are several issues with your poorly written article.

One, to think anyone will become infamous as a result of the blog posting on your barren website is foolhardy and narcissistic, to say the least.  Therefore, due to your nonexistent readership, no one will be passing on your message to one Bryan Follain.  The only followers of his on twitter that you publicized this article to are those that have been vehemently supporting him over the past week.  Were you calling him a moron as he plowed through his competition all the way up to the second biggest chip count in the tournament mere hours before he busted out?

Two, my brother had no clue what twitter was up until about two weeks ago.  When he chose his handle, he had no idea that he was leaving himself vulnerable to the entire world’s criticisms if he finished anywhere but first in the WSOP.  Let me tell you a little about Bryan…he is an extremely hard-working small business owner (think “one man, one truck” kind of business owner) that has no choice but to be confident in his decisions as well as his interactions with others.  He is not a professional poker player and this was his first main event.  Oh yeah, he also did not pay his way into the tournament, he earned it by winning a $40 satellite tournament.  He got there by being confident and expecting to win every step of the way.  Hence, the twitter handle. He also hadn’t ever played in a tournament that lasted longer than a day or so.  Did you take the time to read his twitter timeline?  I doubt it.  It’s an intriguing read, as there were others who had caught wind of his story and called it “every man’s dream.”

Three, did you just copy and paste Matt Stout’s “REALLLLLLLLLLLY” from his tweet?  That was REALLLLLLLLLLLY original.  You do realize that the biggest principle in writing is to develop your own ideas and present them in a way that reflects your own writing style, right?

Four, whether or not you consider what he did a bad play, the fact remains that he was left with a coin flip to either become the chip leader in the WSOP or be busted.  There aren’t many people in this world that can even say they were ever in that position.

The brazen confidence that my brother employed when he opened his twitter account carried him to that point in that momentum-shifting hand and some may say that it led to his downfall.  It is also that confidence that will allow him to come back to his average joe life, $108K richer, mind you, with his head held high knowing that he accomplished something that only 2,856 people have ever accomplished:  finishing in the top 68 of the WSOP.  There are millions of poker players in this world that would love to be included in that group.  I am proud to call one of them my brother.

Since you now have my email address, please let me know the next time you are in the sixth day of a 12 hour a day tournament and get busted out, so I can come give you a couple swift kicks while you are down.  What gives me a sliver of satisfaction is knowing that I will most likely never have that chance…and it won’t be because you forget to email me when the time comes.

Jason

Vanessa Rousso Loses Almost 1 Million WSOP Chips in 30 Minutes

Vanessa Rousso had the most spectacular fall from grace on Day 4 of the WSOP Main Event.

Vanessa Rousso was on a roll for much of the day.  She moved up to 7th in chips during Level 16, helped in part by a good call to her opponent’s bluff.  Going into a four-way raised pot, the flop was Ks5s3c.  Rousso led out for 22,000 and received on caller.  After the Ac came on the turn, Rousso then check-called her opponent’s 32,000 bet.  After the 5d river, Rousso led out for 40,000 and her opponent peeled of a raise to 110,000.   Rousso called and her opponent was reported as admitting defeat, saying, “You’re good,” even before she turned over AhKc to take the hand.

The poker equivalent of the Sports Illustrated jinx kicked in, when WSOP reporters on the scene wrote that Vanessa Rousso could do no wrong and had chipped up to over 1 million.  From that moment on, Rousso tussled with tablemate David Bach three times.  And he got the better of it each time.

Rousso had cracked the 1-million chip mark earlier in the day. But shortly after the dinner break David Bach finished her off in less than thirty minutesl. On the big double-up hand just before the dinner break, Bach moved all in before the flop with pocket aces. Rousso thought about it and then called with ace-king. The aces held up and Rousso dropped down to about 800,000 and Bach moved up to about 400,000.

You rarely get to this stage of the World Series Main Event and expect things to go according to plan. With so much variance at work, things can go significantly better, or sadly a lot worse than expected.

Vanessa Rousso had a rocket-propelled start, moving up from just shy of 300,000 to over a million shortly before dinner. Half an hour after the dinner break, she was out, a victim of David Bach’s semi-bluff. He pushed all in holding QJ with a rainbow flop of 10-9-6. Vanessa went into the tank before calling with pocket 66.  Roussso’s set of sixes was a 72% favorite when she made the call. Bach turned an 8 and Vanessa never recovered.

“Why?” “Why?” she implored as three quarters of her well-earned stack moved across the table. A few minutes later Bach was dealt pocket aces again and finished off Rousso and her top top pair on the board.   Rousso won $23,876 for finishing 511th. Bach ended the day with 1.142 million in chips.

All of this misery happened on the featured table and unfolded live (30 minute delay) on ESPN2.  Rousso handled herself with class, throughout the three hands. She was interviewed by ESPN’s Kara Scott, minutes after she was eliminated in such a quick and “sick” manner, and handled her exit much better than poker brat Phil Hellmuth.

Rousso’s husband, former actor and poker pro Chad Brown was diagnosed with cancer in February after doctors removed a ten pound tumor from his abdomen.  “After this kinda day happens I try 2 zoom out n look at the big picture,” tweeted a disappointed Rousso after her elimination. “I live a blessed life n there are more important things than poker.”